Will Manifold reach 10,000 daily active users (7d average) by April 1st?
Will Manifold reach 10,000 daily active users (7d average) by April 1st?
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Ṁ33kresolved Apr 4
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Time for a more ambitious goal! We blew through the 600 and 1200 DAU goals, and the 2400 DAU goal seems too easy by April.
Resolves YES as soon as Manifold reaches a 7-day average of at least 10,000 DAU (daily active users).
Resolves NO if that threshold has not been reached on or before April 1st 2023.
The data source will be our stats page! For reference, our DAU as of this market's creation is ~1350.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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1,000and
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1,0003.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ765 | |
| 2 | Ṁ143 | |
| 3 | Ṁ96 | |
| 4 | Ṁ84 | |
| 5 | Ṁ83 |
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For context, our original target for raising a Series A was to get to 10k DAU: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Manifold-Markets-Seed-Round-Memo-9936d3f496084a8e913b10aa9f63854f
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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