What are your favorite markets, historically, on Manifold? | Manifold

What are your favorite markets, historically, on Manifold?

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I will award M10 (or more) per market that seems interesting. Feel free to write a sentence or two about why you found the market compelling.

Don't forget to "like" the comments with makets you enjoyed, so the most favorite markets rise to the top!

I may use some of these in a talk at Manifest.

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I brag about this one to my friends all the time. I was right and almost everyone else was wrong😝

Last day of the July stock market prediction tournament. Lot's of traders and volume (for a daily market) and it turned out to be a coin flip in the end. It's pure gambling but we had fun.

https://manifold.markets/AlexbGoode/will-the-sp-500-close-higher-on-jul-43da1c9274ba

Will the S&P 500 close higher on July 31st than it closed on July 28th?

Resolved YES. Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT. Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day. This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of July. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize. | Rank | Prize | |------|-------| | 1 | 1000 | | 2 | 750 | | 3 | 250 | Good luck forecasting!

(Example) This market predicted the Ukraine war! https://manifold.markets/Duncn/will-russia-invade-ukraine-before-t

Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February?

Resolved YES. Will Russian military have a presence within the Ukraine before March 1st, 2202? #Russia #Ukraine #shortterm Jan 15, 7:25am: #RussiaUkraine Close date updated to 2022-02-21 5:42 pm Close date updated to 2022-02-28 12:00 pm Feb 22, 6:02pm: This will resolve YES if at least two major news sources state clearly that Russian tanks or troops have physically entered the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, or any other part of the Ukraine exclusive of the Crimea. News reports that random politician X said Y will be largely disregarded, although major players (e.g., Biden, Putin, Zelensky) will be taken to be knowledgeable if motivated parties. It should be noted that the separatists may have tanks of their own, and the Ukraine certainly does. The presence of tanks on the ground is weak evidence of invasion. Feb 22, 7:54pm: The WSJ, the NYT, and the Washington Post are reporting Russian troop movements into Ukrainian territory. European news agencies are being more conservative, but various government officials in the UK and Poland have stated that Russian troops have entered the Ukraine. The market criteria has been met: I am resolving this to YES.

I also like markets on advances in technology like AI and superconductors

I like markets on sports, politics, and stock prices

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