Will AI be mentioned in a suicide note before 2028 and reported on the by the media
Will AI be mentioned in a suicide note before 2028 and reported on the by the media
Plus
23
Ṁ7682028
87%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
They must mention AI as a reason for committing suicide. Will resolve if there are credible media reports of this.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
So this guy who was talked into killing himself by an AI but left no note doesn't count, right? http://euronews.com/next/2023/03/31/man-ends-his-life-after-an-ai-chatbot-encouraged-him-to-sacrifice-himself-to-stop-climate-
imo: >99% that it happens, >99% it's already happened, entirely about 'media report', I'd change the title to include that
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will anyone commit suicide due to fears of anti-aligned AI before 2030?
86% chance
Will AI-related news in 2025 have a bigger media impact than covid19-related news had in 2020?
15% chance
Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?
91% chance
Will any prominent AI safety advocate be assassinated before EOY 2030
16% chance
Will a mass shooter claim that AI told them to kill people before 2035
85% chance
Will someone commit terrorism against an AI lab by the end of 2025 for AI-safety related reasons?
19% chance
Will there be an anti-AI terrorist incident by 2028?
63% chance
Will any prominent AI researcher be assassinated before EOY 2030
28% chance
Will any AI researchers be killed by someone explicitly trying to slow AI capabilities by end of 2028?
27% chance
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030?
26% chance