What will happen before GPT 5 or GPT 4.5 is released to the public [ADD RESPONSES]
What will happen before GPT 5 or GPT 4.5 is released to the public [ADD RESPONSES]
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29
Ṁ4741Jan 1
98.5%
Jimmy Carter dies
84%
An 8.0 magnitude earthquake anywhere on earth
43%
Israel Hamas Ceasefire
5%
Microsoft declare bankruptcy
5%
Weak AGI is achieved as decided by metaculus
Resolved
YESTrumps VP is announced
Resolved
YESBTC hits 100k
Resolved
YESTikTok bill is passed by the senate
Resolved
YESSORA is released to the public
What will happen before GPT 4.5 or GPT 5 is released to the public.
Please add answers I will extend the market if necessary
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Trumps VP is announced
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
When will GPT5 be announced?
When will GPT 5 be released? (exact month)
When will GPT 5 be released
Will GPT-5 be released before Sep 2025?
77% chance
When will GPT-5 be released? (2025)
86% chance
When GPT-5 will released?
What will be true about GPT-5?
Will there be a GPT 5.5?
31% chance
Will it be revealed that GPT-5 was used for how GPT-5 will be released?
69% chance
Will GPT-5 be released before Oct 2025?
85% chance