Any president would have a hard time taming inflation below 2,5%.

Inflationary:

Tariffs, protectionism & war.

Deflationary:

Drill baby drill, deregulation & cutting government spending.

FED updates inflation forecasts for Q4 2025 upwards upon incorporating Trump's conditional policies: https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/1869481081256476682

My base case is that the fed will struggle to further lower inflation towards its target of 2% regardless. Even moreso under stated Trump policies.

In any month of the year, or for the whole year?

@JamesThele419b Whole year

I think there are widespread expectations among experts that his plans would push it above 2.5%. The question is instead how much of his plans congress lets him get away with, and how much of his plans he actually intends to enact vs talking about theatrically to win the votes of the many people who believe whatever he says because they don't keep track of his actions. https://apnews.com/article/trump-inflation-tariffs-taxes-immigration-federal-reserve-a18de763fcc01557258c7f33cab375ed

@SoniaAlbrecht Although his plans might be inflationary I think the one thing he wants more than anything is low inflation. I expect him to adjust the plans to keep inflation low if it means he can't deliver on certain things. But maybe he'll target 3% or something, who knows.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/economists-say-inflation-deficits-will-be-higher-under-trump-than-harris-0365588e

WASHINGTON—Most economists think inflation, interest rates and deficits would be higher under the policies former President Donald Trump would pursue in a second administration than under those proposed by Vice President Kamala Harris, according to a quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal.

Trump just announced that he would make tariffs on all imported goods at 20%, which would be very inflationary.

@JamesF can you clarify the exact measure (eg total or core cpi)?

@ManifoldPolitics clarity for the sweep market would be appreciated, too!

Here I go asking questions and answering them myself. I checked the question history against CPI data from YCharts, and it seems to be CPI.

Question created Mar 9, 2024, 6:38:42 PM

Resolution based on BLS data

Mar 9, 6:56pm: The current inflation rate is 3.1%

Mar 12, 6:43pm: Current 3.2%

Apr 11, 7:38am: Current 3.5%

Sep 11, 4:34pm: Current 2.5%

March 12, 2024 report covers Feb 2024

Ezra Klein:

Trump has a bold, ambitious agenda to make prices much, much higher. He’s proposing a 10 percent tariff on imported goods, and a 60 percent tariff on products from China. He wants to deport huge numbers of immigrants. And he’s made it clear that he’d like to replace the Federal Reserve chair with someone more willing to take orders from him

[The Ezra Klein Show] Trump’s Bold Vision for America: Higher Prices! #theEzraKleinShow https://podcastaddict.com/the-ezra-klein-show/episode/178092115

https://www.axios.com/2024/06/25/nobel-prize-winners-biden-economy-trump-inflation

Tariffs, deporting workers, lower interest rates and tax breaks all fuel inflation.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240605772/trumps-policies-in-a-second-term-would-be-substantially-inflationary-larry-summers-says

The CPI is up for March now at 3.5%

Tariffs and deportations are inflationary

@Parks Inflation didn’t increase above equilibrium after Trump’s 2018 tariffs

@thepurplebull markets can be highly nonlinear.

@Parks Tariffs do not matter that much, since China first exports to Mexico who then exports to us.

Adding 10,000 Mana Subsidy to this pair of markets! Currently they show Biden with a higher chance of keeping inflation down, is that accurate?

@ManifoldPolitics I’m betting on Manifold being biased against Trump

@AmmonLam I do not think the president matters that much, but a recession is quite likely this year and next year, which likely will lead to lower inflation.

Biden version: https://manifold.markets/JamesF/if-biden-wins-the-election-will-inf