Data will be taken from the IMF after the end of Milei presidency (whenever it will be). The predicted real GDP growth for the next three years (as of the question creation date) is 2%. I will add brackets (every 2%) if the forecasts change significantly.
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Good question, thanks! To be consistent with the answer below: no, I will only count years of the first presidency.
Will you just look at the arithmetic mean of the growth rates listed for 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027 to resolve this question?
@galaga Pretty much. I think taking a geometric mean is more appropriate in this context, as it translates to the average growth over the whole period. If he resigns/is ousted from the office before the end of term then the cut-off date will be modified. I might adjust the data for the half-month period in 2023 and 2027 (eg if something extreme would happen then), but I don't think there is a high chance of that.
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