This market resolves YES if, during October, there is a Google search term which spikes like crazy. This is determined based on the following method:
On Google Trends, pick "Worldwide" and "Web Search".
Pick a search term that you want to check for craziness.
Pick "google" as the search term to compare to.
Look at the end-of-day scores for "google" and [term]. The [term] : google ratio is the craziness score (C).
If on one of the days, C(term, day) > 0.5, and there exists a day in the previous 30 days such that C(term, day) / C(term, past_day) > 5, then this term is indeed CRAZY, and the market resolves YES.
Important exception: scheduled events which are fully expected to trend ahead of time do not count as crazy, even if they meet the craziness criteria. This includes things like:
Olympics
World Cup
Big movie releases
U.S. presidential elections
Some events in recent years which did meet the craziness criteria are:
Assassination of Qasem Soleimani
Death of Kobe Bryant
COVID-19 pandemic
January 6 capitol riots
Russian invasion of Ukraine
Will Smith slapping Chris Rock
Death of Queen Elizabeth II
Israel-Gaza war
Trump assassination attempt
Biden dropping out of election
Iran-Israel war
Charlie Kirk assassination
Due to the partially subjective criteria, I am not betting in this market.
Update 2025-10-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The factor of 5 increase is measured against the previous 30 days from any given day in October, not necessarily just days within October itself. For example, if a term is popular on October 15, the comparison starts from September 15.
Update 2025-10-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve as soon as possible after it closes. If something crazy happens that the creator is not aware of, someone must report it in the comments. Otherwise, the market will resolve NO.
1,000
3.00@ItsMe when exactly will this resolve? are you going to wait a period of time for people to find something that fits the criteria?
@calour I plan to resolve it as soon as I can after it closes. If something crazy happens that I'm not aware of, then somebody would have to report it here. Otherwise it resolves no.
Similar to this and Marnix markets:
https://manifold.markets/SteveBright/will-some-crazy-shit-happen-in-the-c2PA2USt6R
@dfish no it's supposed to be 5. The point is that the search term becomes at least 5 times more popular within a month. That way a search term which is constantly high, like "facebook" or "AI" doesn't count as crazy.
@ItsMe, OK. I understand now: the ratio increases by a factor of 5 or more at some point during October, but the larger ratio must be greater than .5 so that trivial fluctuations are excluded. I like the use of these criteria.
@dfish yes but to clarify, the factor of 5 is measured by the previous 30 days, not necessarily October. So if a term is popular on October 15, we measure starting from September 15