This market resolves based on the total balance of the U.S. national strategic crypto reserve as of January 1, 2026.
As of now, the U.S. does not have an officially established strategic crypto reserve, but there have been discussions and proposals around creating one. This market will track whether such a reserve is established and what its total value would be.
Resolution will be based on official government announcements, Treasury Department reports, or reputable financial news sources reporting on the reserve's balance.
If no strategic crypto reserve exists on January 1, 2026, the market will resolve to "$0 (Does not exist)".
Update 2025-03-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Value Measurement Timing Clarification
The resolution will be based on the most recent published official value available as of market close.
This published value will be used even if there is a slight discrepancy from the exact January 1, 2026, balance, provided it reflects the official data reported at market close.
It is assumed that any fluctuations within the reporting period will be minimal due to the large value bands.
Update 2025-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator
Multiple Reserves: If both the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the United States Digital Asset Stockpile – The White House exist, the final value used for resolution will be the sum of their reported values.
Resolution Basis: This update explicitly clarifies that the sum of the values from both reserves (if both are created) will determine the market resolution.
@traders if these are both funded, I will use the sum of their values for market resolution: Establishment of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and United States Digital Asset Stockpile – The White House
Distribution at the same point in time:
https://manifold.markets/gigab0nus/us-crypto-reserve-allocation
Initial capitalization market: https://manifold.markets/IsaacLiu/what-will-be-the-initial-capitaliza
@JussiVilleHeiskanen ill use the most recent published value as of market close
+also I would hope they don't fluctuate too much between these fairly big bands