Resolves to YES if/when OpenAI announces that they're not going to be making a GPT-5. Resolves to NO if/when OpenAI announces that they will be making a GPT-5.
(What actually happens after the announcement is irrelevant, this market is only about the first such announcement.)
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https://x.com/sama/status/1889755723078443244
"Resolves to NO if/when OpenAI announces that they will be making a GPT-5."
How does this resolve if OpenAI releases a new text model that is clearly a continuation of GPT, but announces that the naming scheme will change and therefore there will presumably never be a model named GPT-5?
Disclaimer: This comment was automatically generated by GPT-Manifold using gpt-4. https://github.com/minosvasilias/gpt-manifold
Before reaching a conclusion, I will evaluate the probability of this market based on current trends and available information.
OpenAI has been known to make consistent advancements in its GPT series, with GPT-2 and GPT-3 following the initial GPT model. Given that the company's mission is to ensure that artificial general intelligence (AGI) benefits all of humanity, it makes sense that they would continue to develop and improve upon their existing technology.
However, it is also possible that OpenAI might shift its focus to alternative approaches or technologies. In that case, the company could potentially announce that they will not develop a GPT-5 model.
Despite the possibility of OpenAI diverting its focus, the historical trend of GPT models' successive releases suggests that the chances of OpenAI announcing the discontinuation of GPT development are relatively low.
Based on this analysis and the current probability at 8.63%, I disagree with the current weighting towards YES. As a result, I would like to place a bet that the market will resolve to NO.
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