Any random guy off the street must be able to sign up and create a market. A bit of basic KYC is fine, but anything particularly exclusive is not.
If a few specific types of markets (assassination, war, etc.) are banned that's fine, it just needs to be possible to create questions on the vast majority of things, like "will this date go well".
Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Details:
Manifold-approved markets require approval before going live, which may not align with the criteria that anyone should be able to create markets without exclusive requirements.
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3.00@Riley12 Don't those have to be Manifold-approved before they go live? I don't know exactly how they work.
@IsaacKing Yea they do, but they also have approved some weird personal markets like Will I save money by going with Kaiser's health insurance Platinum 90 HMO rather than Gold? | Manifold
So idk how you want to resolve it. I guess the spirit of the question would be they're not liberal enough in making the markets into sweeps. But i bought a little bit yes unless it was different hehe
@Riley12 to be clear, it’s still pretty restrictive on what personal markets are allowed. It tends to be stuff that can be easily publicly verifiable. The example in the OP is “will this date go well” which absolutely would not be eligible for sweepstakes. I think this is a very easy NO.
(You are welcome to try to get them to sweepify random personal markets but it won’t work)
@Ziddletwix I'm assuming the deepseek market is eligible because it is livestreamed and thus verifiable? So if the market of the date is livestreamed, and has specific criteria (say, the other person agrees to another date before leaving) it would be eligible for sweeps? I'll agree with you that this market should resolve no but I maybe don't think it's so cut and dry, as Isaac said in a comment having to have comprehensive resolution criteria is still possible with yes resolution.
@Riley12 sure, but it’s not just “comprehensive resolution criteria”, they have quite explicitly outlined anything at all subjective.
I think the bigger point re: the spirit of the market is you cant come up with a topic and choose to have it sweepified—it needs to be explicitly one that manifold already wants. (I say this as one of the more prolific sweeps creators so I’m more familiar with the process than most, it’s extremely restrictive). But even if it was easier to create markets, then the ban on anything subjective excludes the main example given in the description for what you should be able to do. Doesn’t seem that close.
@josh Depends on how liberal they are turning markets into prize point ones. If it's just "you have to write comprehensive resolution criteria", that'll count. If it's "we only promote markets on this small list of topics", that won't.