Will any human-created object reach 1% of light speed before 2033?
Will any human-created object reach 1% of light speed before 2033?
➕
Plus
16
Ṁ411
2033
13%
chance

The object in question must have meaningful complexity, it can't be a few atoms bonded together by a human and stuck in a particle accelerator. Speed calculated relative to Earth, and must be maintained for at least 5 seconds.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
2y

5 seconds in its reference frame or in Earth's reference frame?

2y

@Yev Earth's. (Assuming the Earth is in an inertial reference frame at the time. If it's not, I think we'll all have bigger problems.)

2y

@IsaacKing I'm assuming the reference frame is not rotating with the earth?

2y

(for the purposes of speed calculation)

2y

@Yev Correct. The reference point is the center of mass of the Earth.

2y

Fastest so far is the Parker Solar Probe at 0.064% of light speed. (That's relative to the Sun, not the Earth, but the Earth's orbital speed is only about 0.01% of light speed, so adding it on doesn't help much.)

2y

~7 million miles per hour.

2y

~18,026,000,000 furlongs per fortnight.

2y

@IsaacKing Tipped

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules