1,000
3.00I think yes because of the pressure of the AI e-celebrity's fans: https://manifold.markets/tailcalled/will-there-be-a-community-formed-ar
There are quite a number of UN member countries that score extremely highly on corruption perception indexes. 'No' bets assume that no AI or agent bribes or buys their way into legal personhood in any of the world's most corrupt or innovative countries, including ones that are very keen on capital flows.
@PipFoweraker A good point, but I doubt there will be AIs with that much autonomy (or continuous identity) by 2029. Allow a few more years and it gets much more likely imo.
@AngolaMaldives Legal autonomy to AI's could be granted by an executive order for most countries, which means the time from concept to execution allows for timeframes compressable down to less than a week. 6 years is more than one electoral cycle in most democratic countries. So against the deadline of 1 Jan 2029, I think the market is weighing too heavily on the negative.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00