Market resolves based on the first month in which I use it. It currently costs $200, but that could change, and the market will resolve based on the new value. If new tiers are added/removed, this market is about whatever tier seems closest to what ChatGPT pro was at the time of market creation. If new versions or tools of ChatGPT come out, those are included too.
I'll value my time at $40 an hour for the purposes of this market, so if it saves me at least 5 hours past what I think the free version could do, that qualifies.
Update 2025-06-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The time calculation will be based on net savings. The time expended using the pro subscription will be subtracted from the time saved by its output.
@IsaacKing Will you charge it for expended time, or only credit it for saved time? For example, if you spend two hours prompting one day exclusively for things you wouldn’t have tried asking the free model, and get a single idea that saves you two hours once, what is the current balance?
@JimHays I will charge it for expended time. Otherwise this trivially resolves YES if I spend 5 hours prompting it to write a program that I could have instead spent 5 hours writing myself.