If any nuclear weapons are detonated by 2028, will any have a yield above 50 megatons?
If any nuclear weapons are detonated by 2028, will any have a yield above 50 megatons?
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If there are no confirmed detonations by the end of 2027, this market resolves N/A. If there's at least one detonation of greater than 50 megatons, this resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO.
In the event of uncertainty as to the exact yield, the exact bar I will use is "there's at least a 50% chance that the yield was greater than that of the Tsar Bomba". If necessary I'll leave the market unresolved for a few weeks/months until a consensus is reached.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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