Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?
Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?
💎
Premium
45
Ṁ16k
2036
28%
chance

Criteria for Resolution:

  1. Claim of Probability: Eliezer Yudkowsky must make a public claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim is made. The claim must be made in all seriousness, not as a joke or sarcasm.

  2. Types of Qualifying Statements: Statements such as "certain”, "almost sure”, "pretty certain”, "almost inevitable", or any similar expressions that indicate a probability of higher than 90% will qualify, beyond explicit quantitative claims.

  3. If resolution criteria are not met, the market will resolve NO on January 1, 2036.

Verification of Ambiguity:

- In cases where the claim is ambiguous, efforts will be made to explicitly ask Yudkowsky if his statement means that the probability is higher than 90%.

A related market (the same question but 50% instead of 90%): https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-yudkowsky-claim-that-he-is-mor

#AI
#OpenAI
#AI Safety
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
bought Ṁ50 NO1y

For someone to make a statement like this wouldn't it pretty much have to be true that a misaligned AGI/ASI was already visibly in the process of trying to kill everyone? If you accept the premise that it would be competent at it, that leaves a pretty narrow window to issue such statements, even in worlds where Eliezer is 100% correct.

1y

hmm, mana would sure be more valuable in the timeline in which this market resolves yes

1y

Will it count as YES if he makes a tweet and then immediately deletes it? Could you add a criteria of something like "The claim must be made in all seriousness, not as a joke or sarcasm, and not reversed within 14 days"?

1y

@nsokolsky I will add the part about the seriousness but I am not sure about the reversal. Given the nature of this claim, there may be many reasons why it can be removed, and I think it should not affect the outcome of this market.

1y

What does "after the claim" mean?

1y

@GG it means “after the claim is made”. Please see the description of the market. The length of the market title is limited, I could not fit in this phrase.

1y

@IhorKendiukhov I'm sorry I was just confused by the grammar. So if I understand you correct, Eliezer would have to say "I'm 90% sure that AI will kill us within one year of today." Is that right?

1y

@GG Yes.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.

Related questions

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules