Possible contributors:

• ASI

• Humanoid robot that can replace humans in at least 30% of manual labor tasks

• Deregulation

• Breakthroughs in biotech

I'm curious, what would you all add to this list?

Gave this question to Chatgpt o1. Answer:

The S&P 500, as a broad-based equity index, has historically never doubled in any rolling 12-month period in the modern era. The largest one-year gains, typically observed after major market crashes such as the 2008 financial crisis or the 2020 COVID-19 panic, have generally fallen in the 70-80% range. Even when significant monetary and fiscal stimulus has boosted markets, the benchmark index has not reached a 100% increase in a single year. Because the S&P 500 reflects the performance of hundreds of large companies, it is more stable and less prone to the extreme swings seen in smaller, more volatile stocks. One theoretical route to a doubling could be an unprecedented crash that slashes valuations by more than half, followed by an extreme V-shaped recovery that surpasses the 100% threshold. However, such a scenario would be extraordinary and unprecedented. While the future can bring unexpected “black swan” events, most indicators suggest that a 100% rise in the S&P 500 over any 365-day span before 2035 remains highly unlikely. Those who believe in extremely rapid growth or ultra-accommodative policy measures might assign a small probability, but mainstream historical evidence indicates this outcome is extremely improbable. Therefore, caution remains the prevailing view.