If an AI wipes out humanity on Earth, what will be true of this AI?
If an AI wipes out humanity on Earth, what will be true of this AI?
Plus
16
Ṁ17732100
69%
Gary Marcus will be completely unimpressed by its capabilities
68%
It will be based on deep learning
61%
At least one person directly involved in its creation will be a trillionaire
59%
More than 10 000 human hours will be spent to make sure it does not return politically incorrect outputs
59%
It will be based on neural networks
58%
It will run on Nvidia GPUs
57%
It will wipe out humanity after the rapid recursive self-improvement
56%
Right before the extermination event, it will be considered by the majority of human population as a prosaic thing, e.g. “it is just matrices to predict the next word”
54%
Right before the extermination event, at least 25% of human population will think that they are smarter than it.
52%
Before the extermination event, it will make significant extraordinary contributions to science, technology, and human well-being.
51%
When communicating with human words, it will use the word “delve” more often than it occurs in human texts on average
50%
It will be created by OpenAI, Anthropic or DeepMind
50%
It will be some advanced form of a multimodal transformer
50%
It will run on an AI architecture which is not known as of 2024
50%
Right before the extermination event, it will be considered by the majority of human population a superintelligence with the capabilities beyond their comprehension
50%
Meta will try to create an open source version of it
50%
The process of wiping out humanity will take less than 24 hours from the first signs of attempts to wipe out humanity till the last human on Earth killed
45%
Before wiping out humanity, it will attempt some trade with humanity
41%
The process of wiping out humanity will take less than 1 hour from the first signs of attempts to wipe out humanity till the last human on Earth killed
41%
Right before the extermination event, alignment will be generally considered a solved problem
If I survive the event beyond Earth, I will resolve the market according to my best judgement. As soon as there are some reliable people beyond Earth, I will share with them access to the market to resolve it according to their best judgement in the case I am wiped out. If it happens, I will provide the names of these people in the description of the market.
New options may be added later.
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bought Ṁ10 Before wiping out hu... YES10mo
Where is the version of politically correct but meaning by right wing standards?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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