Tyler Cowen suggests April 16th could be AGI day (but also some skepticism). Will this day/model release be remembered with particular significance, or just be one in line with many others?
This market resolves to 'Yes' if, by December 31, 2026, I consider April 16, 2025, to have been an especially important day toward the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI).
Creator’s resolution authority – I (the market creator) will make the final, good‑faith judgment on whether the condition is met. My decision is binding and not subject to appeal.
Public rationale – At resolution time I will post a brief explanation of my reasoning, including the sources or events that led me to label 16 April 2026 as “especially important” (or not) for AGI.
Non‑participation – I will not trade in this market, nor will I advise others on how to trade, to avoid any conflict of interest.
Ambiguity clause – If, by the resolution date, the importance of the day remains unclear even to me, I would resolve the market NO, burden of proof is therefore to some extent on the YES side.
No partial credit – “Especially important” is a binary assessment; incremental progress or “somewhat important” developments do not trigger a “Yes.”
Tie‑breaker – If unforeseen circumstances make my evaluation impossible (e.g., incapacitation), an impartial moderator agreed upon beforehand will apply these same criteria.
1,000
3.00