Will Bluesky have 50 million users by September 2025? (~triple what it is mid-November)

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According to this website: https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats ...

Bluesky has 15.6m users today (mid November 2024), compared with X's ~550m. To me it seems plausible they could dramatically increase that. The last 2 weeks have apparently seen 1m/week. If something like that continues, they should break 50 million. That starts to seem like a twitter competitor to me.

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Current best estimate is ~0.6 new users per second, which means bluesky is trending to ~39m by September 1st and would need to significantly accelerate to hit 50m by then. The usage trends seem to be flattening out after a long post-election decline.

@DanRobinson Source?

@HamishTodd interpolation based on the same dataset used for resolution: https://bsky-users.theo.io/

To hit 50m by September, bluesky needs to add about 1.15 new users per second.

Rather surprised at my own ability to choose a number such that this became an interesting question!

@HamishTodd It's similar to the number of registered Democrats, so fits nicely.

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