Is Mars devoid of life?
Is Mars devoid of life?
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In the next 10 years, will NASA (or anyone else) show conclusively that there is no indigenous organic life of any kind (microbes or whatever) alive on or under the surface if Mars? Hard to prove a negative, but will resolve to no if life is discovered.
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market title really should be "will we fail to find life on mars in the next 10 years" which, given the upcoming slate of missions, really isn't enough to conclusively say life isn't there.
What happens if in 10 years we don't find life and also don't conclusively disprove it, resolves n/a?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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