Will there be computer hardware on mars running AGI before there are humans on mars?
Definition of AGI: for now as a placeholder I will use Metaculus’ criteria for “When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?”.
However, I don’t much like those criteria and would prefer something like “an AI that is as good as a good human at almost all computer-based jobs”. If someone can point me to an existing operationalisation along those lines I’d probably switch to it.
1,000
3.00It'll be awhile before AGI can run using fewer resources than it takes to keep a human alive. Probably we'll have a person or a couple people assisted by some pre-agi machines
IMO this market is forcing a "it's a spectrum" concept into a binary resolution. I try to steer clear of those. Too much of the betting strategy ends up focused on "what do they really mean when they say X?"
Edit; it's an interesting question, though! Just not something I want to bet on.
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00