Will open-source AI win? (through 2028) | Manifold

Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)

Plus

45

Ṁ2261

2029

35%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

In total output, real-world use, plus prestige (open labs attracting the best talent)

PROB resolution--2022 would have resolved ~70-80% YES

Based on informed (and uninformed) comments, search trends, random Twitter hive minding, etc.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

That's a very vague criteria. Open source definitely has better public perception but weaker models and it's likely to stay that way.

predictedYES

predictedYES

https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-we-have-no-moat-and-neither

Will open-source AI win? (through 2028), 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

Related questions

Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?

Will Open AI ‘collapse’ in the next two years?

Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?

Will an AI by OpenAI beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Will there be a disaster caused by open source developers doing unsafe things with AI by 2028?

Will OpenAI claim that it has achieved AGI in 2025?

By 2028, will I think OpenAI has been net-good for the world?

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)

+13% 1d25% chance

Will OpenAI have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Related questions

Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?

Will OpenAI claim that it has achieved AGI in 2025?

Will Open AI ‘collapse’ in the next two years?

By 2028, will I think OpenAI has been net-good for the world?

Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Will an AI by OpenAI beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)

Will there be a disaster caused by open source developers doing unsafe things with AI by 2028?

Will OpenAI have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules