
AI: When will a laptop be smarter than a person?
Basic
15
Ṁ4102051
2035
expected
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Sort by:
No N/A for numeric markets (think emoji)
When will a phone/laptop match human compute—note that GPT-3 at 10k words per hour is roughly the cost of a PC; and happens to match ~1-3% of brain area in function
And Tesla/CommaAI are also vastly inferior to human perception/control, the main areas of the brain.
Related questions
Related questions
AI: When will a gpu-box be smarter than a person?
2032
Will AI be smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025?
16% chance
AI: When will a phone out-drive a human?
2028
Will AI surpass human intellect by 2030?
91% chance
Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?
24% chance
When will AIs be good at predicting the future?
By 2040, AIs will be as good as the best human at any task that can be performed on a computer at that time and as fast
70% chance
Will AI figure out who has the highest processing speed to working memory ratio by 2030?
48% chance
When will self-improving AI outperform human-developed AI?
2030
AI: 1500 SAT by 2028 (cell phone)
79% chance