Will greater than one "AI Safety Textbook" be released before the end of 2024?
Will greater than one "AI Safety Textbook" be released before the end of 2024?
Basic
8
Ṁ985Dec 31
23%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will greater than one textbooks be released (available to view online and/or in print) that covers a large portion of current AI Safety agendas?
(ask clarifying questions if unclear or too imprecise)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will an "AI Safety Textbook" be available before the end of 2024?
46% chance
Will AI replicate the book cover of "Artificial Intelligence: Safety and Security" before 2026?
86% chance
Will I (co)write an AI safety research paper by the end of 2024?
45% chance
Will there be an AI "lost manuscript" hoax by the end of 2025?
42% chance
Will there be an AI Winter by the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will Anthropic be the best on AI safety among major AI labs at the end of 2025?
87% chance
Will there be a blockbuster movie in the US before the end of 2025 that is acknowledged as written by AI
10% chance
Will Destiny discuss AI Safety before 2026?
71% chance
Will AI Impacts publish another Expert Survey on Progress in AI by the end of 2025?
96% chance
Will an AI produce encyclopedia-worthy philosophy by 2026?
17% chance