Resolution Criteria:
Calibration refers to the previous feature where Manifold users could assess prediction accuracy.
Reintroduction: The feature must be officially launched and accessible to users.
LLM Capability: "Better custom graphs" means any LLM can generate more accurate graphs than its now-defunct predecessor.
Timing: The resolution hinges on whether the reintroduction of calibration comes before LLMs widely demonstrate superior graph-generation capabilities.
Verification: Manifold's official announcements or feature updates will confirm calibration reintroduction. LLM graph capability will be assessed based on public demonstrations, articles, or peer-reviewed benchmarks
Duration: The market will be extended in perpetuity until either happens.
1,000
3.00do you mean this? https://manifold.markets/calibration
if so, then it currently exists. Im probably just confused though
@ProjectVictory Ah thanks! that's a really cool feature. Do you know why they removed it?
@remedyrain It was buggy and required work to fix and some admins believed it was likely to discourage newer users.
https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-calibration-come-back-to-manif
Here's a market about it from last year, there's a link to a user made recreation there.