Will any US Supreme Court justice retire before the 2025 presidential inauguration?
Plus
37
Ṁ15kJan 19
1.1%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
It has been suggested that some of the Democratic-leaning Supreme Court justices will retire before the 2025 presidential inauguration, while the Democratic Party control the Senate and the Presidency, so that they don't risk dying and being replaced by a GOP justice. However, the justices are not particularly close to retirement (the oldest Democratic justice is Sonia Sotomayor, at 68), so they might want to wait it out.
This is an extended version of https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/will-any-us-supreme-court-justice-r, which only went to the 2024 elections.
Resolves YES if any US Supreme Court justice retires before the presidential inauguration in January 2025, regardless of the party they lean towards.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will a Supreme Court justice retire during Trump’s second term?
95% chance
Which Supreme Court Justice will retire or die next?
Will a United States Supreme Court Justice die, retire or be impeached and removed before Jan. 20th 2025?
1% chance
Which Supreme Court justice will retire/die next?
Will any sitting Supreme Court justice leave before 2027?
75% chance
Which Justices will cease to be members of the US Supreme Court before the end of 2025?
Will a second U.S. Supreme Court Justice publicly announce they are retiring any time during President Biden's first term in office?
1% chance
Which SCOTUS justice will be the first to leave the bench?
Will the makeup of the US Supreme Court change before January 20th, 2025 at 12pm ET?
2% chance
If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?
83% chance