Will the South Korean total fertility rate exceed 2.0 at any point before 2051?
Will the South Korean total fertility rate exceed 2.0 at any point before 2051?
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16%
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This question refers to the area held currently (12/1/2023) by the South Korean state.
By "total fertility rate" I mean "children born per woman." If advances in technology make that statistic meaningless (e.g., artificial wombs are created) AND most reputable sources switch to tracking "children born per person" or some variant instead, I will also resolve this question to "yes" if "children born per person" exceeds 1.
I will use the CIA world factbook (or other authoritative source, pending agreement in comments) to determine resolution.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Made this market because of a reddit argument about cultural/genetic adaptation rates to adverse fertility. I've bet it down to 1% as a show of confidence in my position.
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What is Manifold?
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Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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