Will a law be passed to remove taxes on overtime pay by 2028? | Manifold

Will a law be passed to remove taxes on overtime pay by 2028?

Basic

5

Ṁ185

2029

21%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves to "yes" if a law is passed that removes taxes on overtime pay.

See: https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-overtime-tax-exemption/

Update 2025-05-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * A law removing overtime taxes for specific sectors will qualify for a YES resolution, even if not all sectors are covered.
- The removal of taxes must be complete for the affected overtime pay. A law introducing a graduated tax or only partially reducing taxes on overtime (e.g., based on income, where some tax on overtime remains) will not qualify for a YES resolution.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#US Legislature

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bought Ṁ10 YES

What if the bill only exempts part of overtime, e.g. for certain occupations or if the exemption phases out at higher incomes?

@MaxGhenis if the bill splits by sector, then it still removes taxes on overtime (for the affected sector). If the bill splits by income that's there's still a (graduated) tax on overtime work.

Willing to consider counter arguments though

bought Ṁ125 NO

Registering an initial prediction of P[Trump is elected] \* P[Trump passes no-tax on tips] as being no greater than 0.5 \* 0.5 . Actual chances are probably lower than that but I'll let more informed traders scoop up some liquidity.

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