Will there be 5 or more assassinations/executions of heads of state/government in the 2020s?
Basic
8
Ṁ1592030
68%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
So far there have been 2 assassinations (Idriss Déby of Chad, Jovenel Moïse of Haiti).
Resolves according to this list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assassinated_and_executed_heads_of_state_and_government
Executions count too, if it ends up on this article it counts. Only incumbent heads of state, so Shinzo Abe's assassination doesn't count.
If the wikipedia list is deleted or has the criteria for inclusion significantly changed, resolves according to the same guidelines it has at market creation (deaths of incumbent heads of government/state from execution/assassination) as faithfully as possible according to my judgement.
I will not bet.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029?
Will there be an assassination of an American politician by the end of 2025?
26% chance
Will another US president be killed before 2060?
38% chance
Will any current or former president of the United States be assassinated before 2030?
16% chance
From what continent will the next assassinated head of state and/or government come from?
Will more than ten "national level" politicians in any single western country be killed within twelve months of each other before 2030?
15% chance
Will a sitting or former US President be killed by 2030?
17% chance
Will another United States president be assassinated before the end of 2034?
17% chance
Will these leaders lives ever be ended by assassination?
Will there be any assassination attempt on Donald Trump during the term of his presidency?
51% chance