Which science fiction technology or phenomenon will become reality in 2025?
Which science fiction technology or phenomenon will become reality in 2025?
Basic
12
Ṁ2982026
50%
Spectral Biosignature Detection in exoplanets. Inspired by: "The Three-Body Problem"
30%
AI Recursive Self-Improvement Inspired by: "The Matrix"
20%
Advanced prosthetics (RoboCop) - Fully integrated bionic limbs with sensory feedback
20%
Subvocalization Reading Inspired by: "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress" by Robert A. Heinlein
18%
Government Disclosure of Alien Evidence: Media Inspiration: "The X-Files" (1993–2018).
17%
Exoplanet Radio Signal Detection. Inspired by: "Contact" by Carl Sagan
14%
Humanoid robots (I, Robot) - Functional autonomous humanoid robots deployed in manufacturing or service industries
This market speculates on which science fiction-inspired technology or phenomenon will be realized or demonstrated in 2025. Participants are encouraged to submit options that specify both the technology/phenomenon and the sci-fi media it originates from (e.g., books, movies, TV shows, or games).
The resolution will be subjective, based on whether the development closely aligns with the concept portrayed in the media and demonstrates meaningful functionality. Examples of valid options include technologies like brain-computer interfaces from Neuromancer or autonomous humanoid robots from I, Robot.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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