Will a generative AI model be able to make a movie from a novel before the end of 2027?
Will a generative AI model be able to make a movie from a novel before the end of 2027?
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Will a consumer application based on a generative AI model claiming to be able to create a movie from a novel be launched before the end of 2027?
Resolve yes if the service is available to the public and quality of the movie is real like.
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Shouldn't there be some minimal quality criteria? Like if I start a web that uses a stupid generative AI to create geometric patterns + text into a video stream and make it available to the public, will this resolve YES?
And I am not being theoretical - I find it quite likely that somebody will claim they have such product and maybe even make it public. I also think it is going to create completely unwatcheable movies that will not represent the text very well.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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