Will surgical robots perform more than 75% of a surgical procedure in a human patient, autonomously, before 2030?
Will surgical robots perform more than 75% of a surgical procedure in a human patient, autonomously, before 2030?
➕
Plus
35
Ṁ1534
2029
32%
chance

What does "75%" mean in a surgical procedure?: if the surgery includes steps 1 to 4, 1 to 4 are equal in time, and the robot does 3 of the 4 stages. That's 75% of the surgery.

Autonomously:

a close loop system, using classical control theory or a multimodal machine learning model.

Conditions:

YES:

  • Any surgery, anywhere, during a preclinical study under ethical and regulatory oversight.

  • The first use is communicated via a medical journal case study or a medical society conference presentation.

  • ***No ethical or regulatory oversight invalidates the result***.

  • It's still a YES with or without human operator oversight (meaning: the surgeon is present to take over in case of something going wrong).

NO: The autonomous part of the robotic procedure is less than 75% of the procedure.

***The bet excludes existing semi-autonomous systems that already exist: LASIX, orthopaedic drilling or hardware insertion/fixation, endovascular, bronchoscopy, endouro, gastrointestinal endoscopy.***

#️ Medicine
#Engineering
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4mo

Isn't this the case already with the Neuralink guys?

filled a Ṁ50 YES at 40% order4mo

@MagnusAnderson https://www.npr.org/2024/01/30/1227850900/elon-musk-neuralink-implant-clinical-trial

1y

***The bet excludes LASIX, endovascular, bronchoscopy, endouro, and gastrointestinal endoscopy.***

If you feel like you need to specifically exclude these, it might be a sign that the conditions are not specified well enough. What if some other low hanging fruit like these will be discovered and implemented?

1y

@rpominov Thanks for your comment.

I work in the field, and I know those already exist or are close to be automated.

Perhaps I should specify open or laparoscopic thoracic, abdominal and pelvic. But we might be getting too technical. What do you think?

1y

@Favilar Not sure how to fix this, but maybe specify examples of surgeries that would qualify as "yes" if automated. So if some surgery will be automated that is not in either list, we could at least argue whether it's closer to the "yes" list or to the "no" list.

„Will there be some hospitals, which …“ or „Will all hospitals world wide …“ or „will there be one surgery“?

@LeonBohnmann Thanks for the question. Surgeries are performed in hospitals or ambulatory surgery centres. Therefore, I simplified the question.

@FA Okay yeah on that aspect yours is better. But do you mean that one surgery anywhere in the world will be in this way?

1y

@LeonBohnmann Yes, anywhere, but under the conditions I specify. Thanks for the insights!

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