Starship has flown 5 times so far, all since Artemis I; however, none have flown to orbit. Will it fly, successfully and orbitally, more times before Artemis II, than SLS flies in its entire program?
Orbital will be defined as perigee above sea level. Success criteria will be taken from the Wikipedia launch list page.
Close date will be extended as needed until the SLS program ends, or SLS has flown more times than Starship flew between Artemis I and II.
1,000
3.00Sold my previous position because 90% feels a bit too high.
NASA has ordered 10 SLS cores, the next scheduled flight of SLS is in April 2026, Starship probably won't orbit until Q4 of 2025 or later, and SLS is looking more politically secure than it was a month ago.
@LarsOsborne Yes, if required.
Long-term markets are hard and not well supported by Manifold; at least the loan system is back, which helps a bit in ensuring your mana isn't too tied up...
Eric Burger is pretty confident Artemis 2 is not happening next year, which gives Starship a lot of time to rack up orbital launches.
Does partial success count?
Does SLS also have to be orbital and successful, or just launch?
Orbital will be defined as perigee above sea level
Based on twitter discussion, to match the intent of the original inspiration tweet:
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00