Resolves Yes if Zohran wins and more housing is built in 2026 than 2025, or if Zohran loses and more housing is not built in 2026 than 2025. Resolves No otherwise.
For the unconditional questions:
/EvanDaniel/will-nyc-build-more-housing-in-2026
1,000
3.00@spiderduckpig In recognition of the fact that logical connectives can be complicated to reason about, I included a plain English description of how this would resolve in the market description, along with a link to the Wikipedia page which includes a fully-specified truth table.
Are there any scenarios in which you're unclear as to how this question will resolve? If so I would be happy to explain how it will resolve.
If you're curious about how to price it, my advice would be this:
If the two underlying questions are unrelated, this market should be priced at approximately (a*b + (1-a)*(1-b)). At current pricing of 62% for more housing and 77% for a Zohran win, that's about 0.56 for this market. A higher price (currently this market is at 63%) says the market thinks Zohran is mildly more likely to get more housing built than not-Zohran (presumably Adams).