What will Biden's share of the popular vote be in the 2024 election?
Plus
24
Ṁ8237Mar 31
90%
>= .0001%
54%
>= .001%
10%
>= .01%
3%
>= .1%
1%
>= 1%
As far as I'm aware, he won't be on any ballots, and this market will primarily be about write-in votes.
I expect resolution will be somewhat delayed while we await certified counts and detailed reporting.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
I don't yet see any clear reports on totals. Dave Leip isn't reporting numbers. Might have to wait for the FEC report. Let me know if you have a good source before that.
@EvanDaniel For comparison, this is a level exceeded in the 2020 election by Mitt Romney, Tulsi Gabbard, Bernie Sanders, and many others, some purely on write-in votes. Mike Pence and Andrew Yang did not meet the .0001% level. No candidate achieved .001% purely on write-in votes.
Related questions
Related questions
What will the Democratic Nominee's exact vote share be in the 2024 Presidential Election nationwide?
How large will the popular vote margin be in the 2024 presidential election?
How much of the popular vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 United States Presidential election?
What percentage of the popular vote will each 2024 Presidential candidate receive?
What will Trump's vote share be in the 2024 election?
What will the Dem Nominee's exact vote share be in the 2024 Presidential Election in Pennsylvania?
What will the Dem Nom's exact vote share be in the 2024 Presidential Election in Wisconsin?
What will the House popular vote margin be in 2024?