Will Donald Trump be the Republican party nominee in the 2032 US presidential election?

So the only reasonable scenario is the one where Biden wins and then it's Trump Vs someone. If he doesn't die by then I'm not completely sure what will move Trump away. 1% is definitely too low

bought Ṁ100 NO1y

@RuiRodrigues It's difficult to imagine the Republican Party nominating someone who lost the previous three elections.

@HankyUSA Between two or three it doesn't change too much

He'd be 85. Americans' tolerance for geriatric leadership will only decrease further if Biden gets a second term, and is arguably already waning. We may be locked into a Trump v Biden Oldster Battle in 2024, but the only way the GOP hangs on to Trump this long is if he stays centrally relevant to their appeal long enough to lose either the primary or the election for 2 more election cycles, in which case they'd never field him again anyway. I'm normally fairly conservative making pronouncements, especially about prerennial rule exception Donald Trump, but there is NO WAY this could ever realistically happen.

@AngolaMaldives yes, people like to bet though ;)

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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

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