Lost for any reason. Within 2026 calendar year.
Counts
Crash
Lost
Captured
Disappeared
Stolen by adversary
Does not count
Unusable plane due to bugs
Repossessed by creditors
Unavailable due to conflict with former ally who no longer allows us physical access
We still control it but it can't take off due to runway damage or runway unavailability, even intentional
Sold or transferred to ally or other
Update 2025-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator:
Lost is defined by whether the plane is usable after landing.
If repairs return the plane to service, it does not count as lost.
A clear dividing line should be established, considering repair durations (e.g., repairs should not exceed six months).
1,000
3.00If the plane is damaged in a crash/accident but remains useable after repairs, does it count as lost?
@MaxWilliams I'm trying to make the divider whether it's usable after landing. If repairs return it to service then I'd say it wasn't lost. I don't believe I've heard of cases where repairs take say 6months - I'd expect the dividing line to be clear. Of course reality does have a way. If there's a case that's close we can debate here and / or use LLMs to evaluate if it was really lost (ie out of action).
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00