Sergey Brin or Larry Page returns to a daily leadership role at Google/Alphabet in 2025

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Dec 31

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The market resolves yes if either of them has a C-level title at Google or Alphabet.

Board seat doesn't count
Adviser doesn't count
A simple announcement of a future change doesn't trigger yes - one or both of them must have actually assumed the role.
duration: as long as the hold the position for at least one day it counts - even if they then quit/are fired or stop doing it for some reason afterwards
This change must have happened during calendar year 2025

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Title should say "by 2025" if it's meant to include 2024 as the description says

@DavidFWatson thanks, fixed. This is designed to cover this event happening in calendar year 2025. i.e. during that year, such a transition will take place means YES

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Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

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