Bridge built across the Strait of Gibraltar connecting Europe to Africa through 2040
Bridge built across the Strait of Gibraltar connecting Europe to Africa through 2040
Basic
6
Ṁ2812041
11%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
At least some work must have started and project must be funded and on track.
The gap is approx 9 miles.
EDIT 8/28/2023 adding the proviso "You'll be able to travel above water not flying between the countries" which other mega-bridge markets have too. See comments.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@JoshuaWilkes Correct. That's why for most of them I included "You'll be able to travel above water not flying between the countries" i.e. you are moving on a solid piece of ground, above the water, not flying in the sky. i.e. in a car or train or something based on a land connected surface.
predictedNO 1y
@StrayClimb great 😃
Some of these questions have tunnels or have a tunnel proposed which I think dramatically lowers the odds of a bridge
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Bridge built connecting England and France through 2040
9% chance
Bridge built connecting Ireland to Scotland or England through 2040
13% chance
Bridge built connecting mainland Italy to Sicily through 2030
16% chance
Will a crossing of the Strait of Gibraltar, between Morocco and Spain, have started construction by 2035?
33% chance
Bridge built connecting Ireland to Wales through 2040
10% chance
Bridge built crossing from the Yucatan to Cuba through 2050
10% chance
Bridge built connecting Cuba and USA mainland through 2040
8% chance
Bridge built connecting the Bahamas to another country through 2040
13% chance
Bridge built connecting Newfoundland to mainland Canada through 2040
22% chance
Bridge built connecting any major Philippine island through 2040
36% chance