Will Israel launch an attack on Iran’s nuclear program before Trump’s inauguration? | Manifold

Will Israel launch an attack on Iran’s nuclear program before Trump’s inauguration?

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Jan 21

6%

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In order for market to resolve YES, the attack must be a significant operation to either destroy or incapacitate nuclear capabilities of Iran. Any means of attack will count, including sabotage. If responsibility is not directly claimed, news reports by major news organizations will be used to assess. Market closes midnight, Jan 19th.

Update 2024-24-12 (PST): - Resolution criteria start date: From the date of market opening (AI summary of creator comment)

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#🇮🇱 Israel

#🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict

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I'm assuming this doesn't count the previous strikes that hit research facility before market creation.

@JoshuaPhillipsLivingReaso from date of market opening of course.

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