[closed until race finishes] 2025 Tour de France Femmes Winner?

Ṁ63k

Jul 26

65%

Demi Vollering

Marlen Reusser

Kasia Niewiadoma

27%Other

The list of recent winners:

2024: Kasia Niewiadoma
2023: Demi Vollering
2022: Annemiek van Vleuten

The 'winner' will be based on the rider awarded the trophy for the general classification at the podium presentation at the conclusion of the final stage. If there is no podium presentation but there is an announcement of the winner, this resolves based on the first person announced by the race organizer to be the winner. Changes after the final winner is announced (e.g. late disqualification) will not change the result of this market.

There is another similar market with more options and less liquidity here:

/RedzoneITG/who-will-win-the-2025-tour-de-franc-OyzONdU5cL

maillot jaune

general classification

tdf gc

tdff

yellow jersey

Due to the considerable amount of liquidity at stake in this market, and the platform not allowing me to withdraw liquidity at a later date, I reserve the right to close trading on the question while the outcome is still in doubt.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Tour de France Femmes

Get

1,000

and

3.00

9 Comments

44 Holders

161 Trades

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Here's the new version of the market, I swapped Marlen for Pauline, who is rated highly on the betting odds now:

/Eliza/40k-liquidity-2025-tour-de-france-f-nlE0R8n0QC

Alright, I guess I kinda have two options:

I can try to reopen the market, which will cause me to lose mana for no reason while Marlen moves to 0%.

I can make a totally new copy of the market with 10k liquidity per answer, leaving this one unresolved until the race finishes....

Kinda leaning toward the latter......I'm okay with subsidizing up to 5 total answers, as long as they're going to trade at the very least above 5%. Is anyone here willing to buy any specific rider above 5%?

Some potential candidates:

PFP
Kasia
Puck
Gigante
Rooijakkers
.....

If we wouldn't hold some of these above ~5%, I'd rather keep it on Other.

reposted

To anyone who ever watched the men's Tour de France: The womens edition has a strong chance to be significantly more entertaining. Womens cycling is awesome.

bought Ṁ1,500 YES

Anyone interested in buying Other No at 20%?

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

@Eliza According to Marlen, she is feeling unwell and has trouble eating food.

So far Demi in the low 60s here is considerably lower than betting odds which seem to put her a little over 70.

Embarrassingly, Polymarket doesn't even seem to have a market for this race...ridiculous.

boughtṀ3,000 YES

@evan Is there a specific rider you favor or do you just not like the choices already presented?

@Eliza I don't suppose you'd be willing to leave trading open until Monday, when my mana currently sunk into TDF markets will be freed? :)

@RedzoneITG It seems fairly likely that we can trade after Stage 2 and before Stage 3.....I think my plan is something like:

Close it before the first stage

If nothing weird happens on GC, reopen it (I'm telling you ALL now!)
Close it before the second stage
If nothing weird happens on GC, reopen it
....

Keep going like that, but if I feel as though the odds on anyone would have shifted dramatically, or anyone crashed out, or anything else, I kinda have to leave the market closed because:

If I reopen it and immediately trade to fix the probabilities, people will think I'm intentionally manipulating 'profit' scores. (I have already requested many times that market creators have the option to not be credited with profit on their own market for this reason....)
If I reopen it and don't trade to fix the probabilities, it's basically just me giving away potentially 5000 mana to whatever random person comes along first.

Neither of those are really great!

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