Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
➕
Plus
1.1k
Ṁ2.1m
May 29
25%
Elon Musk
9%
Barack Obama
9%
Other
6%
Mr. Beast
6%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
5%
Jeff Bezos
5%
Sam Altman
4%
Bill Gates
4%
Donald Trump
3%
No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific
3%
Bill Clinton
2%
Robert Caro
1.9%
Jensen Huang
1.9%
Vladimir Putin
1.7%
roon
1.2%
Geoffrey Hinton
1%
Gwern Branwen

https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1826340260735058400

This market is specifically on whom the above tweet is referring to, regardless of whether the interview occurs.

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@TheAllMemeingEye Didn’t people say that when he interviewed Trump too? Zelenskyy is a bit likelier because of Patel’s interest in military history, but I’m not convinced there’s any kind of cue to take from Fridman.

@NicoDelon in my opinion it's not so much that Patel would be copying Fridman so much as Zelenskyy might be trying to go on a western media blitz

I agree that it's not Gwern given the latest tweet. I will say however that i really liked the format of that video and I'm looking forward to seeing any possible future variants with significant anonymous personalities.

bought Ṁ15 YES

@aphly screenshot:

@jim aah that is indeed new information 🤣

Not Gwern then

I'm kind of thinking it was Gwern lol

bought Ṁ100 YES

https://x.com/ben_j_todd/status/1863066452921876918
Dwarkesh spotted in China. Could it be Xi?

bought Ṁ1,500 NO

@Ellis As far as I could tell from googling, Xi has never been on a podcast.

@EricNeyman biggest guest yet… in all of podcasting

@Ellis he did a recent blog post of this trip

Does this market resolve at the end of the current year? He said next few months in august

losing all my mana betting on gwern and roon

@beaver1 lol I don't even know who Roon is; a search turns up a dead Prussian named Albrecht Theodor Emil Graf von Roon

@AlQuinn he is a protagonist on tpot https://x.com/tszzl

@beaver1 Surely that makes him a bigger guest than Mark Zuckerberg

@Big0h Mark ZUCKERBERG! THE GUY FROM THE SOCIAL NETWORK MOTION PICTURE!?

bought Ṁ5 YES

@beaver1 You’ve got a different one, zuck was a side character in a slashfic

My thesis is that isn’t Elon, Obama, or Trump because it doesn’t make as much sense for them if the episode was to air after the election. Therefore I’m buying shares of Altman, Gates, Bezos, and Roon (if Dwarkesh was just memeing)

@PaperBoy among these only Gates may qualify as "more famous by far" than Mark Zuckerberg.

bought Ṁ100 NO

Put some no on elon, based on him being too busy being shadow president to do a podcast.

Is Obama a "big guest" in the current zeitgeist anymore? It's not 2012!

Much as they retain Secret Service protection, former presidents maintain a lifetime "big deal" status

@dlin007 Obama’s credibility in tatters at this point

@MichaelDickens I would have said that former UK PMs also retain their "big deal" status, though the timing suggests that the person Dwarkesh was talking is an even bigger deal.

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