Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if before 2030 (in the next ~5 years) Elon Musk:

1. Sells Twitter (X)

2. The sale price beats what he would've made investing his initial investment into the S&P 500, not including additional (infl. adj.) cash/assets that Elon may have infused into the company during his ownership.

The market will resolve N/A if Elon does not sell X, and "No" if the sale price does not beat the S&P500. ('Sale price' could also be market cap after IPO).

Background:

Elon Musk acquired Twitter for $44 billion in October 2022 and subsequently rebranded it as X in July 2023. Since the acquisition, the platform has faced significant challenges, including a reported 71% decline in value by January 2024, as estimated by Fidelity, placing its valuation at approximately $12.5 billion (theguardian.com). Additionally, X experienced a 15% drop in monthly users during the first year under Musk's leadership, amid concerns over increased hate speech and reduced content moderation (theguardian.com). These factors have contributed to a substantial decrease in advertising revenue and overall company valuation.