Invalid contract
Total militant + civilian deaths in the present armed conflict. There have been at least 48 so far.
Update 2025-05-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated they will wait for third-party confirmation of the death count before resolving the market.
Update 2025-06-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated that in situations where they previously (and mistakenly) believed they could resolve the market to 'No' (such as potentially for counts less than 100, as per the user's query), their alternative plan is to resolve the market to N/A.
1,000
3.00@LarsOsborne I thought I could resolve all markets to No, my mistake. Next best alternative is to NA the market, apologies
Some discussion on a coincidentally identical market on Metaculus if anyone is interested https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37328/india-pakistan-conflict-with-100-deaths-in-mayjune-2025/#comments
There have probably been 100 so far, but I will wait until there's more third-party confirmation to resolve.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00