By 2025, over 50% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?
By 2025, over 50% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?
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Ṁ2071Dec 31
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Based on Gallup surveys. 33% said aliens in 2019. 41% said aliens in 2022.
Criteria: Resolves based on first post- December 2024 Gallup survey asking "We have a question about unidentified flying objects, also known as UFOs. Which comes closer to your view -- [some UFOs have been alien spacecraft visiting Earth from other planets or galaxies, (or) all UFO sightings can be explained by human activity on Earth or natural phenomenon]?" https://news.gallup.com/poll/350096/americans-believe-ufos.aspx
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
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