Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
Plus
41
Ṁ46872031
34%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
RSA-256
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@Dig As another comment hinted, a modulus of this size has already been factored by a classical computer decades ago.
IMHO, seems like this market should probably resolve YES on account of this fact. Perhaps you would say that this doesn't meet the criteria because "quantum computing" wasn't involved? But in that case, it seems like we should clarify what qualifies as "quantum computing" here.
Related questions
Related questions
Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?
19% chance
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2030?
28% chance
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040?
65% chance
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2035?
48% chance
Will quantum computing break cybersecurity by 2030?
19% chance
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045?
65% chance
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050?
80% chance
Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?
28% chance
Will a quantum computer show a clear advantage vs classical computers in solving a major cryptographic problem by 2030?
37% chance
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2075?
76% chance