Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to the answer that best reflects whether the United States has definitively "won" a major trade war by achieving its stated objectives while experiencing net positive outcomes relative to its trade partners.

• YES will resolve if there is clear evidence that the US has achieved its primary strategic and economic objectives in a major trade dispute, with demonstrable benefits outweighing costs (such as significant trade deficit reduction, protection of key industries, or forcing major concessions from trading partners without equivalent US concessions).

• NO will resolve if the evidence indicates that US trade wars have resulted in mutual economic harm, failed to achieve stated objectives, or produced outcomes where costs to the US economy (higher consumer prices, lost export markets, reduced economic growth) outweigh any benefits gained.

The resolution will consider economic data, trade statistics, expert consensus, and official statements from relevant government agencies and international organizations.

Resolves by end of 2025.