A Martian colony will exist before a Lunar one
A Martian colony will exist before a Lunar one
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A colony is defined as 3+ people present on the surface staying for over a year. This can be multiple individuals in shifts as long as at least 3 people are present at a time.
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I'd be inclined to vote Yes, but it turns out that you can get quite short stays on Mars, leaving almost immediately after you've arrived. I expect that to happen first for Mars. Even somewhat longer stays such as half a year, you could fit in a single return window, at the cost of somewhat long transfer times. So humans on Mars aren't actually forced to stay a year on the surface, as I initially thought.
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In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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