The link by Craig does raise a question. Is being shot to death by cop based on the spirit of the market equivalent to being arrested. If it is, the count is at least three as of more than a month ago

@JussiVilleHeiskanen I'm sure there are senses in which it's equivalent, but as the market maker I said "arrested" so I won't count it.

Andrew Taake: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/07/january-6-attacker-arrested

@traders, I know I said "market resolves one week after close", but this seems like a clear resolve NO for 0. What do you think?

@CraigDemel also 1

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Is there a second arrest? Please link!

@CraigDemel the article you linked at the end mentioned someone who got a 10 year sentence and one that was shot dead by cop

@JussiVilleHeiskanen the ten year sentence person, Emily Hernandez, was arrested in 2022, long before market creation: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2025/01/30/emily-hernandez-sentenced-fatal-car-crash/78047420007/

Impossible to resolve this type of market. Good luck tracking arrest status of 1600 people through 3000+ jurisdictions (in the US alone, the rules technically include all countries).

@MaybeNotDepends I'm counting on Mother Jones etc to do a lot of the work for me.

https://manifold.markets/JeffBerman/how-many-fbi-informants-will-be-sho

Related: https://manifold.markets/jb456/will-any-january-6th-participant-pa

One down https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/23/january-6-pardon-man-arrested

@johnwhiles Need to see whether it was before market creation, but yes, this sort of thing!