Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?
Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?
Basic
10
Ṁ3482026
56%
20%
Eleni Kounalakis
12%
Betty Yee
7%
Antonio Villaraigosa
5%
Rob Bonta
Gavin Newsom is term-limited. Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis has announced her candidacy, as has Betty Yee. Will Rob Bonta announce he is running for Governor of California by 2023-11-26?NO It's years away, so many other candidates are possible. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_California_gubernatorial_election
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
California Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026?
Will the democratic party win the 2026 california gubernatorial election?
96% chance
Who will become the next governor of California after Gavin Newsom?
Who will win the 2026 Colorado gubernatorial election?
Who will win the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election?
Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Will Rob Bonta be elected governor of California in the 2026 election?
12% chance
Who will win the 2026 New York state gubernatorial election?
Will Eleni Kounalakis be elected Governor of California in 2026?
32% chance
Will Betty Yee be elected California Governor in 2026
20% chance